The concept of global life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis is gaining relevancy in environmental impact reports (EIR) for projects being considered for construction under CEQA/SEPA/NEPA. By including an evaluation of the global environmental impacts, the message conveyed by the regulators is that the acceptance of a project will be based on a global, much larger, scale than previously considered. Considering the long-lasting and long-ranging impacts of GHG emissions to climate change, this approach is warranted to a degree. KERAMIDA has been engaged in such a project for NEPA/SEPA compliance to manage and evaluate the global GHG impacts through a life cycle analysis (LCA) for not only the project but for project alternatives. By conducting the LCA correctly, the results could potentially benefit stakeholders and investors to illustrate the positive impact a project may have on climate change.

Cradle-to-Grave Evaluation of GHGs

The life cycle analysis, also known as life cycle assessment, encompasses the entire cradle-to-grave evaluation of GHGs for a specific boundary condition. This could potentially include:

• emissions related to the extraction and transportation of energy and/or feedstock needed for the project;

• the processing of the fuel and raw materials to create a product;

• construction/decommissioning of structures;

• increased traffic due to new workers traveling to work

• the transportation of the product to consumers, including the production of transportation fuel; and,

• the end of life activities related to how the product is consumed or disposed of.

These are just examples of steps to consider. Each project must be evaluated for relevant sources, sinks, and reservoirs of GHGs for emission quantification, because every project will have their own unique life cycle steps. 

How to Calculate GHG Emissions

Emissions can be calculated by a variety of methods. In some situations, modeling software can be used to calculate emissions. KERAMIDA has experience in the use of the Greenhouse Gas Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model which is commonly used for life cycle emission projects. This model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory (U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy) and is recognized by state and federal agencies as being an acceptable method for evaluation. This model is primarily focused on the cradle-to-grave emissions of fuels that are commonly used for transportation. There are other popular life cycle emissions software available to be used, but regardless of software, the primary importance is for the consultant to understand the various life cycle steps of the process. By understanding those steps, the consultant can use software, emission factors through state, national, or global guidance, or literature review to estimate project life cycle GHG emissions.

Addressing Uncertainty in LCA with Sensitivity Analysis

As one can imagine, the uncertainty involved in the life cycle analysis (LCA) evaluation has the potential to be significant. Every step in the analysis involves some level of uncertainty in the way life cycle emissions are quantified.  If you consider the emissions uncertainty of every step in the process, the end result will give you a value with such a high uncertainty, one can begin to question the value of your conclusions. To make sense of the results and to really provide meaning to the conclusions, the uncertainty must be addressed and evaluated. One way to address this is through a sensitivity analysis. This type of analysis determines how to not only identify variables, but to understand their impact to the overall uncertainty of life cycle emissions.

Examples of variables to evaluate in the sensitivity analysis are:

• Global warming potentials (GWP);

• Upstream feedstock/raw material pathways;

• Downstream end use pathways; and,

• Manufacturing technologies that have the potential to emit lower GHGs.

By understanding the impacts of certain variables, a proponent can identify areas for further refinement when presenting the project’s environmental impact.

Considering Emissions Displacement

Another aspect of the environmental impact assessment is to understand the concept of emissions displacement. By introducing a new product into the market, how does this impact the emissions of an existing product that it could potentially replace?

Case Study: New Cement Manufacturing Facility

A simplified example is presented using a new state-of-the-art cement manufacturing facility that proposes to not use coal as a fuel source. Although the appearance of a new, large cement manufacturing facility may raise concerns by local residents, it could potentially be a net benefit to global GHG emissions by creating cement that could potentially replace cement being produced by facilities who primarily combust coal as a fuel source. By understanding product options, and potential pathways for product replacement, the presentation of a project’s environmental impact can carry a whole different meaning.

Understanding a Project’s Environmental Impact with LCA

Life cycle analysis (LCA) is not just a straight-line path and can have very complicated and extensive upstream and downstream branches in the production and end-use of a product. By understanding all the relevant pathways, emissions can be presented in terms of gross emissions from the potential project and by net emissions considering the displaced pathways. Both representations of emissions will give a complete and accurate picture of the proposed project’s environmental impact. 

Benefits to Investors

Public sentiment is critical to the approval of any project, so don’t let misinformed perceptions judge its viability. A life cycle analysis can potentially convey the positive impacts of a project and alleviate the pressure investors often feel when trying to get stakeholder support for their project.

Please contact us today to learn how KERAMIDA can help you manage and evaluate the global GHG impacts of your project through a complete life cycle analysis.

Blog Author

Albert Chung, Ph.D., P.E.
Senior Project Manager,
Air, Climate Change & GHG
KERAMIDA Inc.

Contact Albert at achung@keramida.com.